Thursday, June 14, 2012

Welcome to those who think the Fukushima accident is harmless. Please introduce yourself!

I interviewed with the Japan Times, who then published the following article: 'Flyjin' feel vindicated, worry for those left in Japan

The other day I noticed a spike in traffic to this site from the following page:
Japan Times Interviews 2 “Flyjin” / Ignorance, Fear, and Paranoia Abound

Seeing what appeared to be misrepresentations of my views, I contacted the author and the following emails were exchanged:

Date: Tue, Jun 12, 2012 at 9:48 PM
From: Ivan Stout ivan.stout@gmail.com
To: japanprobe@gmail.com

Dear James (Editor-in-Chief),

I need to inform you that your recent post regarding my interview with the Japan Times seems to contain "mischaracterizations" of both myself and the other interviewee. I understand your policy for not giving "equal value" to the arguments of "Idiots, bigots, fearmongers, and liars," but surely you have a "due process" before passing such judgement. Accordingly, I would like the opportunity to discuss some of the points you bring up in your post.

My only condition is that we discuss this on level ground. You know my identity. Let me know yours so that we can have a discussion where both sides have some level of accountability (Different ways to do this . . . Perhaps we can connect through Linkedin). If the comments under your post are any indication, a little bit of anonymity goes a long way into degrading the quality of public discourse . . .
Let us have a meaningful discussion on this so that we can mutually better understand each other's views.

Respectfully,
Ivan Stout

Date:  Tue, Jun 12, 2012 at 10:00 PM
From: JapanProbe japanprobe@gmail.com
To: Ivan Stout ivan.stout@gmail.com

Ivan:

You reached out to the media and made yourself a public figure,
opening yourself up to criticism from blogs.

I won't give you my personal details, sorry.  I've received enough
death threats from anti-nuclear people to know that such a thing would
be a huge mistake.   Bloggers have a right to be anonymous.

If you want discussion, do so in the comments section of the blog
post. (Or via your wife's blog)

Date: Tue, Jun 12, 2012 at 11:41 PM
From: Ivan Stout ivan.stout@gmail.com
To: JapanProbe <japanprobe@gmail.com>

James,

I have no objection against public criticism. However, I do believe anonymity lacks credibility and leads to frivolous dialogue that only increases the noise to signal ratio on a given topic. I also believe this issue is important enough to have meaningful discussion, which is why I have chosen against anonymity for myself. This is also why I would like to debate with others who can take full responsibility for their own comments (something not possible under a state of anonymity).

Again, I am not arguing against your right to stay anonymous. I am just saying it is hard to take the arguments from someone looking through a peep-hole seriously. If the best you can do is to criticize from a dark room, then I will have to go somewhere else for a more meaningful debate. You cannot offer me any meaningful insight because I have no context to measure your comments against.

Just a word of advice . . . I hope you do not regret at some point never having a discussion of substance because you were always too afraid to truly stand up for what you believed in. I may be subject to the savage treatment of the anonymous mob but the mere fact that I make my comments under my own name lends my views more credibility than all the Anons and generic "James"'s on the Internet put together. If you also had the same level of conviction in your own views, I would assume establishing that level of credibility would be equally important to you. The alternative is to assume your post is merely another frivolous rant in search of ad traffic at the expense of meaningful debate on a truly important topic. If this is the case, then you are doing both sides of the debate a disservice. Please do your own moral conscience a favor and keep your frivolous comments to the frivolous topics.

Have a nice anonymous life. . .
Sincerely,
Ivan Stout

Date: Wed, Jun 13, 2012 at 12:00 AM
From: JapanProbe japanprobe@gmail.com
To: Ivan Stout <ivan.stout@gmail.com>

Ivan:

As I eat some vegetables from Tohoku, I remember what Jake Adelstein wrote to me this morning, "In general it's always bad to give out any private information. It's the message not messenger at issue."

Stop with the bullshit about me being the one that is "afraid."  Stand
up and address your critics in public.

-James

And with that last response, my frustrations towards those who try to minimize the impact of this ongoing accident is pretty well covered. Namely:

  1. They never want to have a fair debate on an equal playing field where both parties are accountable for their statements (i.e. their identities are BOTH known). 
  2. Despite their views, they show no indication of trying to capitalize on the situation in any significant way (other than cheap vegetables . . .).   

The second item really frustrates me. I have spent a significant portion of my life studying about free markets and have acquired a special appreciation for the beauty in how they work. Free markets THRIVE on opposing views. You simply  would not have any transactions without difference of opinion. If everyone thought the price of an asset was going to decrease in the future, who in their right mind would buy that asset? Yet this is exactly what economically is happening in the areas around Fukushima. Real estate assets that were going for over a 20% premium before the accident have been unable to sell a year later at a 20% discount. Such a broken market indicates a vacuum of opposing views on the future value.

So why are those folks that are so smarter than everyone else not gobbling up land at the great discounts caused by "irrational paranoia?" Where are the JREITs exclusively investing in "contaminated" areas? Where is the "smart money" going after the irrational 40% discounted to pre-accident value assets? Despite the government's assurances and the online anonymous ranting, there is very little economic evidence supporting the view that the contamination is harmless when looking at asset values. Consequently, it is hard for me to accept at face value those who play down the situation because the market does not appear to reflect consistent risk taking by such a segment. I could make assumptions about why this disconnect might exist, but I would much rather discuss this directly than add to the flood of presumptuous guesses on the Internet on what someone might be thinking.

"Stand up and address your critics in public." Fair enough, we have made this challenge on this blog in the past without any takers. Please, ANYONE (unfortunately anonymous "James" is not feeling up to it . . .), introduce yourself so that we can have a worthwhile public discussion on this matter, rather than yelling out insults from behind the apron strings of anonymity. This is an important enough issue that deserves credible public debate, not the rants of an anonymous mob. . .

17 comments:

  1. Hello! My name is Avery Morrow and the death count from Fukushima radiation is 0. The death count from Three Mile Island is also 0. Actually, hydroelectric power is over 200 times more deadly than radiation. My source is an independent researcher summarizing 14 accredited, widely acclaimed scientific studies:

    http://www.gepr.org/en/contents/20120101-02/

    If you can read Japanese he has an even more eye-opening study!

    http://zasshi.news.yahoo.co.jp/article?a=20120521-00000310-agora-sci

    ReplyDelete
  2. Don't forget the MIT study that came out last month:

    http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/prolonged-radiation-exposure-0515.html

    “It is interesting that, despite the evacuation of roughly 100,000 residents, the Japanese government was criticized for not imposing evacuations for even more people. From our studies, we would predict that the population that was left behind would not show excess DNA damage — this is something we can test using technologies recently developed in our laboratory.”

    I'm from Boston and I consider MIT one of the single most reliable sources for hard science in the world!

    ReplyDelete
  3. If you're still curious, here's an article from Nature magazine, the single most respected scientific publication ever:

    http://www.nature.com/news/fukushima-s-doses-tallied-1.10686

    ReplyDelete
  4. Welcome Avery!

    I know the expectation (according to some) now that you are out in the open is for tons of death threats and what not to be lobbed your way, but I would like to break with that custom and sincerely thank you for your comment and opening remarks towards a sincere discussion. I have sent you (I believe I got the right person . . .) a Linkedin request. Please accept my Linkedin request so that I know you are who you say you are.

    After we get that little formality out of the way, I will start reviewing your points and posting responses (Yes, I do
    read Japanese. Thank you for the link). I will also keep this thread closed to posting to just you and myself going forward to avoid distractions and in order to keep the debate focused.

    Also, probably some reasonable ground rules would be to leave out specific references to employers, etc . . . I know we can reasonably see who employs who, but both of us are probably bound against making public comments/references (and I will not be able to host any references to my current or past employers on this blog). However, I certainly hope we can both leverage our unique backgrounds and industries (mine:Finance, yours:Education and Theology, correct?).

    Again, thank you very much for supporting your views out in the open, and I look forward to having a meaningful debate!

    ReplyDelete
  5. Okay, I accepted your request! But just to let you know, if you are going to post a critique of the MIT, the UN, and Nature, I expect it to be coming from a source of similar prestige. Anyone can post stuff up on a blog -- but that's not how science operates, at least not in my view.

    ReplyDelete
  6. I know you have not gotten a chance to accept my Linkedin request yet, but I thought I would go ahead and kick things off a little in the meantime.

    First off, I appreciate your enthusiasm, but I can see how this could quickly become a "whack a mole" discussion. I think it is important that we take a methodical approach to ensure we do not miss anything and so that the discussion stays focused. Please allow me to apply some notation to your points (Pn) and supporting docs (Sn) (feel free to provide a better notation style, if you know of any). As you read the below, please indicate points you think we can agree on or explain why you still disagree.

    Hopefully we can compromise on some points so that we can focus more energy on our key differences.

    P1) "Death count from Fukushima radiation is 0."
    I think this is a difficult position to defend due to the following points:

    -The technology to allow diagnosis of 100% of the causes of deaths to a 100% confidence level currently does not exist, so proving not a single death was caused by Fukushima radiation is an impossibility.
    -The health effects from radioactive contamination can have a very long incubation period. Just because the incubation period of an illness is long does not mean the cause of that illness does not exist (e.g. tobacco use, asbestos).

    Agreement Proposal: "There is currently no irrefutable evidence supporting radiation related deaths from Fukushima. However, it is acknowledged that the technology to attribute all deaths from such an accident does not yet exist. Furthermore, it is widely accepted that illnesses like cancer can have an incubation period significantly longer than the time that has passed since the accident."

    P2) "Hydroelectric power is over 200 times more deadly than radiation."
    I think we would address this point if we focused on our different views towards the risks from radioactive contamination. P2)'s conclusion depends on your risk assumption, so I believe our time would be better spent debating that assumption. Anyway, here is a rebuttal just in case you really want to include this into the scope of the debate:

    Dams have existed literally thousands of years before electricity was invented. Dams simultaneously serve multiple uses, as you can see in the below document:
    P2_S1) http://www.fema.gov/hazard/damfailure/benefits.shtm (List of dam uses)

    Dams cause deaths when they fail during floods, but one of their primary functions is to control flooding. Ergo, would not the relevant argument be whether flood control causes more deaths than not trying to control floods?

    Finally, for the below, please just confirm for now that I have categorized correctly the underlying views that your supporting evidence falls under. I will review these, but I want to know what underlying points I need to be considering while doing so (i.e. why are our views about the risks of the accident so different):

    P3) Threshold models are more accurate than linear no-threshold models
    P3_S1) http://www.gepr.org/en/contents/20120101-02/
    P3_S2) http://zasshi.news.yahoo.co.jp/article?a=20120521-00000310-agora-sci (believe this also cover the below point)
    P3_S3) http://www.nature.com/news/fukushima-s-doses-tallied-1.10686

    P4) External exposure models can explain internal exposure risks
    P4_S1) http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2012/prolonged-radiation-exposure-0515.html

    Looking forward to your comments.

    ReplyDelete
  7. So far, I agree with everything you say, and I will gladly discount the specific case of hydroelectric power. The point I was trying to make there is basically Ikeda Nobuo's argument about calculated risk; all energy gathering activities involve some level of risk, so "zero risk fundamentalism" is not a helpful way to approach any topic. I support both hydroelectric and nuclear.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi Avery,
    I had to post my last comment as a new blog entry because it was too long. Let's continue from there. Thanks!

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